Movie Moan's Summer 2012 Prediction Power Hour
Tue, April 10, 2012 IT HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAS BEGUN!
Phil, Kristina and Jamie reunite to do battle once more as they look at each of the summer blockbusters in detail one more time and place their bets on just how much money each will bring in. Will 'The Dark Knight Rises' cross $500 million? Will 'Battleship' make a tenth of that? Do kids love 'The Amazing Spider-man' enough for the web slinger to survive against the competition this year? Which insane prediction of Phil's will make us drop our mics? Most importantly, will Kristina win this time?
Also joining us this year is professional help in the form of Writer for BOXOFFICE.com and Founder of BoxOfficeTheory.com, Shawn Robbins!
And in case you want to skip to a specific prediction, here are the cliff notes:
5 mins - The Avengers
13:35 mins - Dark Shadows
21:10 mins - The Dictator (which changed its release date to May 18th right after we recorded)
29:30 mins - Battleship
37 mins - Men In Black 3
43:10 mins - Snow White & The Huntsman
51:55 mins - Prometheus
63:25 mins - Rock Of Ages
68:45 mins - Brave
78:50 mins - G.I.Joe: Retaliation
86:15 mins - The Amazing Spider-man
97:50 mins - Ice Age: Continental Drift
102:40 mins - The Dark Knight Rises
118:20 mins - The Bourne Legacy
125:25 mins - Total Recall
132:50 mins - The Expendables 2
Download the audio only file right here:
Reader Comments (14)
Curious. What's the name of the track you use behind the "Snow White and the Huntsman" piece?
The track is called 'World Collapsing' by Danny Cocke (not Daft Punk as was my initial assumption). It's the actual music composed for the trailer and you can listen to it on youtube if you search.
Jo's Predictions (domestic totals)
The Avengers - $380 (finally, a Marvel film worthy of the praise)
Dark Shadows - $130 (Depp + pop genre)
The Dictator - $40 (ugh)
Battleship - $130 (GL numbers, Berg should have been on Gi Joe)
Men In Black 3 - $180 (nostalgia)
Snow White & The Huntsman - $178.6 (see Narnia avg's)
Prometheus - $155 (pg -13, but no stars)
Rock Of Ages - $90 (Depends on the music)
Brave - $260 (Dreamworks bounces back form bombs all the time. Pixar's first princess movie)
G.I.Joe - $180 (Better release date & real stars)
Spider-man - $280 (see spiderman track record, minus first class syndrome = startrek #s)
Ice Age: Continental Drift - $170 (safe animation guess)
The Dark Knight Rises - $395 (for many reasons, least of which being the film climate this year)
The Bourne Legacy - $174.6 (see bourne avg's)
Total Recall - $90 (see Wisemen avg's)
The Expendables 2 - $125 (see Avengers, if it was a joke)
Anyways I think I came in second last year, not sure.
Phil, really appreciate all the work ou do on and for this site. You leave I leave. But man are you in for a wake up call this year. Your guesses are too passion filled, perhaps you'll learn your lesson next year.
Also you guys are going to get a big wake up call with Spiderman. As much as you want to hate it(and boy do you ever), it's still Spiderman. His name is bigger than both Toby and Raimi. Even his bad film performed insanely well, he's arguably the most popular superhero name in the world. For some of you guys to have it performing like weaker than those Marvel studio films is silly.
Also, could you guys speak on the state of Disney's (in house) live action dept. Seems like they are completely lost these days, same goes for their animation. If it wasn't for Marvel and Pixar, they would be sunk at this point.
I'd be surprised if any film breaks 1billion this summer.
(note, I may have posted this twice, the server always screws with me)
Here are my predictions:
The Avengers: $360 million
Dark Shadows: $145 million
The Dictator: $70 million
Battleship: $85 million
Men In Black 3: $160 million
Snow White & The Huntsman: $200 million
Prometheus: $190 million
Rock Of Ages: $115 million
Brave: $215 million
G.I. Joe: Retaliation: $140 million
The Amazing Spider-Man: $250 million
Ice Age: Continental Drift: $180 million
The Dark Knight Rises: $490 million
The Bourne Legacy: $100 million
Total Recall: $90 million
The Expendables 2: $115 million
Oh yeah I'm ready guys! :)
Last year I would have agreed with you Jo. I made some very silly predictions.
This year though, I worked it out. I feel very confident with my predictions and in any instance where I've bid high, it's because I believe in the quality of the film, or at least that audiences will respond to them.
And I choose to take 'passion filled' as a compliment. :)
I was a little hyperbolic last year, so I better be a a little bit more conservative...
The Avengers - $290M
Dark Shadows - $165M
The Dictator - $55M
Battleship - $140M
Men In Black 3 $180M
Snow White & The Huntsman - $210M
Prometheus - so hard to call, as it really depends on the final rating... it could be anywhere between $140 and $250M. I really can't be more specific.
Rock Of Ages - $120M
Brave - $260M
G.I.Joe: Retaliation - This year's Green Lantern, even if it turns out to be fun. $113M
The Amazing Spider-man - okay, allow me just a tad of hyperbole... $270M
Ice Age: Continental Drift - $170M
The Dark Knight Rises - $470M
The Bourne Legacy - $147M
Total Recall - $105M at the most!
The Expendables 2 - it will crawl to $90M (if it gets that close) and this might surprise you coming from me.... but I honestly think this one WILL suck!
Actually the part where The Joker says, "And here we go" was in the 3rd act and in the trailer but besides that and the last shot of the movie nothing from the 3rd act was shown in the trailer.
@A2THEH
Yes, that did occur to me after we recorded. I think the fact remains though that fans piecing the story together based on the trailers alone had a very different version of 'The Dark Knight' in their heads even a few weeks before release (the Batpod/Truck/Street showdown was the climax, Two Face is set up for the sequel etc.). It will be the same for this film. The last 20-30 mins will not be revealed.
And the actual ending, whatever it is, will probably be a totally polarizing one. Either people will stand up and cheer or completely hate it.
@welshfilmbuff
I understand your caution sir but you have to put an actual number on Prometheus. That's only fair to the rest of the competitors. Just guess; I'll bet you win.
Okay, I'll go the A2THEH route and say $180M for Prometheus. Thinking about its possibilties, I can see it getting Apes money.
The Avengers: $350 M (I don't know where you guys got the idea that general audiences thought Thor or Cap were part of the same franchise. Maybe after seeing Coulson/Fury in the movies or after seeing The Avengers trailer thay caught on, but before they were just thought as part of the same brand, like X-Men or Spider-Man)
Dark Shadows: $120 M
The Dictator: $50 M
Battleship: $80 M
Men In Black 3: $210 M
Snow White & The Huntsman: $215 M
Prometheus: $180 M (kinda hard predicting this one without the raiting...and even then)
Rock Of Ages: $105 M
Brave: $220 M
G.I. Joe: Retaliation: $150 M
The Amazing Spider-Man: $245 M
Ice Age: Continental Drift: $200 M
The Dark Knight Rises: $450 M
The Bourne Legacy: $130 M
Total Recall: $60 M
The Expendables 2: $85 M
And bonus track....because it was mentioned on the show....
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter: $35 M
The Avengers--$360mil
Dark Shadows--$110mil
The Dictator-- $55mil
Battleship--$145mil
Men In Black 3--$175mil
Snow White & The Huntsman--$225mil
Prometheus--$145mil
Rock Of Ages--$120mil
Brave--$245mil
G.I.Joe: Retaliation--$170mil
The Amazing Spider-man--$230mil
Ice Age: Continental Drift--$185mil
The Dark Knight Rises--$465mil
The Bourne Legacy--$120mil
Total Recall--$65mil
The Expendables 2--$120mil
Snow White and the Huntsman is the one I'm most nervous about because it has just as good of a chance of being a huge bomb and success and it's not easy to make 200mil domestically. I call that my limb prediction.
The Avengers 380M
Dark Shadows 155M
The Dictator 125M
Battleship (doing good in foreign countries but not sure about Domestic total) 165M
Men In Black 3 175M
Snow White & The Huntsman 180M
Prometheus 160M
Rock Of Ages 110M
Brave 210M
G.I.Joe: Retaliation 158M
The Amazing Spider-man 205M
Ice Age: Continental Drift 155M
The Dark Knight Rises 460M
The Bourne Legacy 170M
Total Recall 125M
The Expendables 2 115M
Oh this is wonderful, look at all these numbers I have to crunch in September :)
Thanks again for taking part everyone.
I know I've criticized Jamie enough about The Amazing Spider-Man but when he said, "250 is insane!" and "Is international really gonna saved them?" Those quotes just burned into my brain. Jamie Spider-Man is the most popular superhero internationally. Look at the numbers no doubt it will make $500 million international alone because of it's popularity and the 3D bump. Oh and it will make $100 million in the 6 day weekend. Guaranteed! So this is the last time I will talk about The Amazing Spider-Man and Jamie's thoughts on it until the movie comes out. $250 million! :)