There are people out there who have already experienced "Avatar", and they have lived to tell about it. For the most part, the film has been pretty well received. As I write this "Avatar" is hovering around the mid to low 80's on Rotten Tomatoes among critics, 82% at the time of this post to be exact. Members of RT are giving it a 80%. Not too shabby, but not near the numbers of "Dark Knight" (94%) a movie that many fans think "Avatar" is going to beat at the box office.
Comparing "Avatar" to a film like "Dark Knight" is bad enough, but there are some fans out there who are comparing this film to another Cameron epic, "Titanic". Those fans need to pump the brakes, "Avatar" isn't going to surpass "Dark Knight" domestically and it certainly isn't going to challenge "Titanic". The question is does it have to? To some fans it does, they need it to do as well is it can so it somehow justifies the fact that they enjoyed it. Not only does the movie's percentage on Rotten Tomatoes matter to them, but so does the amount of money the film pulls in.
Truthfully neither should matter to a fan, whether that be a fan of Cameron or or a fan of "Avatar" itself. Let the studio worry about the box office and the critics worry about a movies critical appeal. That is what the general public will be doing and the general public are the ones that matter. They are the ones who have been battered the last several weeks with tv spots and interviews relating to the weird and wild blue alien creatures of "Pandora".
The marketing has come late but it has come hard and often, hoping to coax the general public to the theater to enjoy the enticing world of 3D. Where this movie will score big is with its jaw dropping visuals and the 3D technology which has fueled "Avatar" to be called the "Game-Changer". The visuals and Cameron's name recognition alone will help to propel this movie to a very solid opening weekend. I'm estimating that "Avatar" will pull in a healthy 66.5 million with the real test coming the following week when "Sherlock Holmes" debuts.
"Avatar" will be hurt by opening on only 3300 screens domestically, even with the help of 3D screens and 3D prices of $15-$20 a pop. It surely could get a nice push during Christmas weekend when it faces of with "Sherlock Holmes", expect a small bump in theater counts. Christmas weekend is crucial to "Avatar's" success, this is when we'll find out if the movie really has legs and if word of mouth and repeat viewings are going to propel this film forward or sink it's ship. I expect this film to play very well overseas across all markets but "under perform" in the states. I use the term "under perform" loosely because of the gigantic budget and huge cost "Avatar" has enjoyed. What constitutes as a success? I guess it depends who you are.
What are your predictions for Avatar's opening weekend?
I'm yet to see any figures so far for Avatar but everyone I have spoken to seems to like it and those that saw it in 2D are planning to go back and see it in 3D. My guess is for a £75M opening weekend and for it to hold at just under a 50% drop off next weekend against Sherlock Holmes.
I am guessing it will just make it's way to £200M in the US in what will no doiubt be a long cinema stint, and I can see a hefty £400M overseas take.
Mon, December 21, 2009 
