If you’ve been following us at TMT and/or listening to the Movie Moan podcast, you know I’ve refused to jump on this “Avatar is going to change the way movies are made!” bandwagon. For anyone wanting to simply point to over-zealous fanboys as the source of these remarks, Cameron himself is guilty of making such claims.
A new report from The New York Times doesn’t paint the most positive of light towards Avatar’s box-office prospects. If these claims are to be believed, 20th Century Fox will have spent close to $500 million total on the film. Yes, that’s said to include production costs as well as the film’s marketing. You’ll also know that studios don’t lump in the cost of selling a movie with the money they spent to make the damn thing.
Said report also points to a $230 million production budget. That’s studio spin, at best. If a major tentpole like Spider-Man 3 or Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End cost $300 million (and minimum, no less), there’s no way in Hell Avatar cost under that price-tag. The most telling remark comes at the very end of the article where Fox purposely placed Alvin & the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel as their “secret weapon” opening merely a week after Avatar opens. If Cameron’s return to cinema is going to kick so much ass financially, then why place a high-profile family-friendly sequel the week after it? That says it all, folks.
I honestly think we’re going to see a repeat of King Kong next month. That is to say Jackson’s remake did solid business in theaters ($220 million domestic gross - $550 million worldwide). But it didn’t meet the kind of numbers everyone expected. That mixed with its pricey budget in addition to having its thunder stolen by The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe the week prior resulted in it being labeled as a box-office underperformer.
Truth be told, I’m having trouble seeing Avatar breaking $200 million in the states at this point. All I care about is if Cameron delivers another great movie. At this point, that's all everyone should hope for.